Degerfors IF 0-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus Mjallby AIF 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | Mjallby AIF 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.894 / defence 1.148 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.753 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.204. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.671 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Degerfors IF games / 51 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 38%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | Mjallby AIF 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Degerfors IF 0.92 / Mjallby AIF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.894 / def 1.148 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.753 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mjallby AIF xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 31% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.75x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
31%
3.20
31%
3.21
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
1.96
1.04
Mjallby AIF xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.04 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 14W 8D 29L from 51 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 16L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.35 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 4D 11L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 14W 8D 29L in their last 51 games (0.98 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 18D 16L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.36 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 60%, Mjallby AIF 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Degerfors IF) and 24% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 44%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 28% of games; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 28% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 24% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Degerfors IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 22, as Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.04 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.75 / defence 0.67, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 38%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, Mjallby AIF 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 0.98 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.