Degerfors IF 0-6 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.90 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus IF Elfsborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | IF Elfsborg 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.14 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.898 / defence 1.112 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.014 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.945. Data: 35 Degerfors IF games / 35 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 37% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 70% | IF Elfsborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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