Degerfors IF vs Halmstad – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Halmstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Halmstad in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Degerfors IF, 0.50 for Halmstad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Degerfors IF, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Halmstad — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Degerfors IF winning.
The historical record gives Degerfors IF a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 49% versus Halmstad 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Halmstad 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.34 xG and Halmstad 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.826 / defence 0.950 | Halmstad attack 0.697 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 49 Degerfors IF games / 49 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 47% | Draw 30% | Halmstad 23%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Halmstad 4.35. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 50% | Halmstad 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 47% | Draw 30% | Halmstad 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Degerfors IF 1.34 / Halmstad 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.826 / def 0.950 | Halmstad attack 0.697 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Halmstad xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Stora Valla.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad part of?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 47% chance of winning, Halmstad a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Degerfors IF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 4W | Draws 2 | Halmstad 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Halmstad (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.83x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.70x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.32
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.21
0.87
Halmstad xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.87 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 10D 27L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (12W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Degerfors IF against 0.94 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 3W 7D 14L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.76 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Halmstad away?
Halmstad's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.67 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 4, Halmstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 42%, Halmstad 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Degerfors IF) and 42% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 50% of games; Halmstad in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 42% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 42% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Halmstad tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.