Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Degerfors IF face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Degerfors IF welcome AIK Stockholm to Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). Kick-off is Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, AIK Stockholm have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.40 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Degerfors IF, 4 for AIK Stockholm and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Degerfors IF 0–1 AIK Stockholm — a AIK Stockholm win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.98 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.624 / defence 1.103 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.056 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.361. Degerfors IF's attack rating of 0.624 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 33 games and AIK Stockholm's last 33.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 23% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 51%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.27 | Draw 3.98 | AIK Stockholm 1.94. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and AIK Stockholm's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 30% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 23% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Degerfors IF 0.98 / AIK Stockholm 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.624 / def 1.103 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.056 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.59
AIK Stockholm xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 23% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.62) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Degerfors IF's last 33 games and AIK Stockholm's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
23%
4.27
25%
3.98
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.57
1.59
AIK Stockholm xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
5%
20.87
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.59 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 16D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.70 PPG from 60 outings (30W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.42 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.47 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Degerfors IF (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Degerfors IF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.27 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 23 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won AIK Stockholm 3-0 Degerfors IF.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Degerfors IF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2026: Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, AIK Stockholm 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 33%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 73% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat AIK Stockholm 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.98 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.59 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.62 / defence 1.10 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 23% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 51%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.