BK Hacken 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sirius's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sirius trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 50% versus Sirius 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 50% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.41 xG and Sirius 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.042 / defence 1.082 | Sirius attack 0.960 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.996. Data: 32 BK Hacken games / 32 Sirius games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 45% | Draw 28% | Sirius 27%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.70. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 50% | Sirius 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 45% | Draw 28% | Sirius 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG BK Hacken 1.41 / Sirius 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.042 / def 1.082 | Sirius attack 0.960 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sirius xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 1 - 2 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 45% chance of winning, Sirius a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.60
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.45
1.03
Sirius xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.03 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 12W 13D 5L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Sirius's form line: 9W 11D 10L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.63 PPG, Sirius on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.43 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 67%.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 12W 13D 5L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Sirius have gone 9W 11D 10L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.07 PPG; Sirius away: 1.13 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sirius in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 40%, Sirius 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (BK Hacken) and 47% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sirius in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 53% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of BK Hacken's recent games and 47% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sirius in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.41 xG and Sirius 1.03 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 45% | Draw 28% | Sirius 27%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 50%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.63 PPG, Sirius 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.