BK Hacken 2-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of BK Hacken's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. BK Hacken register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Sirius in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of BK Hacken: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Sirius, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 3–0 with BK Hacken winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both BK Hacken and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Sirius trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 68% and Sirius 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (BK Hacken 77% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.00 xG and Sirius 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.332 / defence 1.331 | Sirius attack 1.171 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.252. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 BK Hacken games / 53 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 40% | Draw 21% | Sirius 38%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Sirius 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
BK Hacken dominate the H2H record, yet Sirius are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 90% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 40% | Draw 21% | Sirius 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG BK Hacken 2.00 / Sirius 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.332 / def 1.331 | Sirius attack 1.171 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Sirius xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 2 - 0 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 40% chance of winning, Sirius a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): BK Hacken 5W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.33x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
40%
2.47
21%
4.75
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.96
1.95
Sirius xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
14%
7.04
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.40
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.95 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 26W 9D 18L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 22W 10D 21L from 53 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.64 PPG, Sirius on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.19 PPG from 26 outings (18W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sirius have gone 10W 7D 9L from 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.68 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 26W 9D 18L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Sirius have gone 22W 10D 21L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.19 PPG; Sirius away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — BK Hacken at 81%, Sirius at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for BK Hacken and 58% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of BK Hacken's games and 58% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of BK Hacken's matches and 58% of Sirius's.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sirius in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 2-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.00 xG and Sirius 1.95 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sirius landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.33 / defence 1.33 against Sirius attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 40% | Draw 21% | Sirius 38%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 77%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Sirius's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.64 PPG, Sirius 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.