BK Hacken 3-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours BK Hacken (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as BK Hacken face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 1 for Sirius and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 4–1 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Sirius trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 74% versus Sirius 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 67% | Sirius 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.728 / defence 0.882 | Sirius attack 0.913 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.209. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.728 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 BK Hacken games / 49 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Sirius 14%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Sirius 7.14. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Sirius 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG BK Hacken 2.31 / Sirius 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.728 / def 0.882 | Sirius attack 0.913 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sirius xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 3 - 2 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 67% chance of winning, Sirius a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
Record (4 meetings): BK Hacken 3W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.73x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
67%
1.48
18%
5.48
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.29
0.97
Sirius xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
1%
70.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.97 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 31W 12D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 14W 13D 22L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BK Hacken are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 10D 9L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.12 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 31W 12D 6L in their last 49 games (2.14 PPG), while Sirius have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.29 PPG; Sirius away: 1.04 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 79%, Sirius 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for BK Hacken and 50% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of BK Hacken's games and 42% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of BK Hacken's matches and 50% of Sirius's.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Sirius 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 3-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.31 xG and Sirius 0.97 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.73 / defence 0.88 against Sirius attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Sirius 14%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 67%, Sirius 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.