BK Hacken 1-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Gais travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
BK Hacken at Bravida Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gais away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — BK Hacken at 1.20 PPG versus Gais's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 0, Gais 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Gais in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 64% versus Gais 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 72% | Gais 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.84 xG and Gais 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.166 / defence 1.154 | Gais attack 0.726 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.252. Data: 58 BK Hacken games / 28 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Gais 21%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Gais 4.76. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Gais 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Gais 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG BK Hacken 1.84 / Gais 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.166 / def 1.154 | Gais attack 0.726 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gais xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Gais kick off?
BK Hacken vs Gais kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Gais?
BK Hacken 1 - 2 Gais.
Where is BK Hacken vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Gais part of?
BK Hacken vs Gais is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 55% chance of winning, Gais a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both BK Hacken and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Gais in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Gais (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about BK Hacken vs Gais?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.17x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.14
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.89
1.05
Gais xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
3%
30.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.05 for Gais, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken come into this having played 58 games, going 30W 9D 19L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.71 PPG from 58 outings (29W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.71 PPG, Gais on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
BK Hacken's home form reads 20W 3D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded. BK Hacken's scoring rate against Gais's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Gais in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 30W 9D 19L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Gais have gone 29W 12D 17L in their last 58 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Gais away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.17 PPG; Gais away: 1.45 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Gais in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
BK Hacken
0
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 1, Gais have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 76%, Gais 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for BK Hacken and 55% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 66% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 34%; Gais in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of BK Hacken's games and 45% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of BK Hacken's matches and 55% of Gais's.
Do BK Hacken and Gais tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gais in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.84 xG and Gais 1.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Gais attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Gais 21%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, Gais 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.71 PPG, Gais 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.72 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.