AIK Stockholm 0-3 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host IFK Norrkoping at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AIK Stockholm at 1.40 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, AIK Stockholm have won 3, IFK Norrkoping 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 4–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 42% | IFK Norrkoping 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.50 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.002 / defence 0.969 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.018 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.163. Data: 31 AIK Stockholm games / 31 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 29%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Norrkoping 3.45. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.50 / IFK Norrkoping 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.002 / def 0.969 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.018 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 3 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 45% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (4 meetings): AIK Stockholm 3W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.00) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.91
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.65
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.15 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 13D 15L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (21W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 21W 6D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 60%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 15L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.30 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.03 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
5
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 3-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 37%, IFK Norrkoping 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat AIK Stockholm 0-3 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.50 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.5 short of their projected output. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 29%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 42%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with IFK Norrkoping winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.