Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 77% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Villarreal host Valladolid at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Villarreal — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Villarreal have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valladolid stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Valladolid have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Villarreal have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Villarreal have won 2, Valladolid 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Villarreal 2–1 Valladolid — a Villarreal win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Villarreal in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 76% versus Valladolid 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 67% | Valladolid 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.82 xG and Valladolid 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.362 / defence 1.109 | Valladolid attack 0.717 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.160. Villarreal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.362 — their 2.82 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Valladolid's defence rating of 1.487 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Villarreal's projected output up. Valladolid's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Villarreal's last 59 games and Valladolid's last 21.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.31 | Draw 7.18 | Valladolid 10.52. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (77%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Valladolid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 80% (last 10 home games) | Valladolid 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Villarreal 2.82 / Valladolid 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.362 / def 1.109 | Valladolid attack 0.717 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Valladolid xG
57%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Valladolid FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Valladolid kick off?
Villarreal vs Valladolid kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Villarreal 5 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Villarreal vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valladolid part of?
Villarreal vs Valladolid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 77% chance of winning, Valladolid a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Valladolid will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Villarreal vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.36) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 59 games and Valladolid's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
77%
1.31
14%
7.18
10%
10.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.74
0.92
Valladolid xG
1.31
77%
Home win
7.18
14%
Draw
10.52
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
6%
16.74
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
1%
176.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Valladolid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.92 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Villarreal have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 9W 7D 5L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 4W 3D 14L from 21 games, 0.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Venue Form
On home soil, Villarreal have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 10 home games (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
Villarreal (Home) vs Valladolid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Villarreal vs Valladolid Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valladolid away?
Villarreal's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.60 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Villarreal won Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Valladolid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valladolid?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 3, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valladolid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valladolid?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Villarreal at 80%, Valladolid at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Villarreal and 80% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Valladolid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Valladolid matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Villarreal's games and 50% of Valladolid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Villarreal and Valladolid matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Villarreal's matches and 80% of Valladolid's.
Do Villarreal and Valladolid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Villarreal's recent matches and 80% of Valladolid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valladolid 5-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.82 xG and Valladolid 0.92 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.36 / defence 1.11 against Valladolid attack 0.72 / defence 1.49, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 77% | Draw 14% | Valladolid 10%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Valladolid 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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