Villarreal 5-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Villarreal at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Granada CF encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estadio de la Cerámica plays host to Villarreal versus Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Villarreal (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Villarreal's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Granada CF's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Villarreal's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Villarreal, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2023, ended Villarreal 3–2 Granada CF — a Villarreal win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 80% and Granada CF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 64% | Granada CF 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.75 xG and Granada CF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 0.936 / defence 1.176 | Granada CF attack 0.801 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.156. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.319 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Villarreal's projected output up. Data: built from Villarreal's last 64 games and Granada CF's last 25.

Result probabilities: Villarreal 50% | Draw 28% | Granada CF 21%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.98 | Draw 3.51 | Granada CF 4.73. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Villarreal's last 10 home games and Granada CF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Villarreal 80% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 30% (last 10 away games).

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