Valladolid 0-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Real Betis at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Valladolid welcome Real Betis to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valladolid's home record at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla: 1W 0D 2L from 3 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Real Betis — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Betis are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Valladolid trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Real Betis trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 43% versus Real Betis 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 57% | Real Betis 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.75 xG and Real Betis 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.625 / defence 1.208 | Real Betis attack 0.921 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.244. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.625 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Valladolid games / 45 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 20% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 52%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Real Betis 1.92. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 0% | Real Betis 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 20% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Valladolid 0.75 / Real Betis 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.625 / def 1.208 | Real Betis attack 0.921 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Real Betis xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Real Betis kick off?
Valladolid vs Real Betis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Valladolid 0 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Valladolid vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Real Betis part of?
Valladolid vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 20% chance of winning, Real Betis a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Valladolid and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Real Betis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Real Betis in?
Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Real Betis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.62) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
20%
4.95
28%
3.61
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.13
1.39
Real Betis xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
5%
19.79
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.4 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.39 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valladolid come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Real Betis sit at 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Valladolid — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Valladolid's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Betis have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Real Betis's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.43 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Real Betis away?
Valladolid's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.00 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Real Betis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2025, when Real Betis won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
1
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Real Betis?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Real Betis have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Real Betis 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valladolid 0% BTTS, Real Betis 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Valladolid) and 67% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 67% of games; Real Betis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valladolid's recent matches and 67% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Valladolid's recent games and 67% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Real Betis tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valladolid's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 8, as Valladolid and Real Betis drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.75 xG and Real Betis 1.39 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Betis landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.62 / defence 1.21 against Real Betis attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 20% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 52%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 57%, Real Betis 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.