Valencia 2-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valencia and Valladolid meet at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 27 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Valencia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Valladolid's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valladolid away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Valencia, 1 for Valladolid and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Valladolid winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 43% versus Valladolid 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 43% | Valladolid 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.65 xG and Valladolid 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.854 / defence 1.056 | Valladolid attack 0.775 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.035. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Valencia games / 30 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 56% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 19%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Valladolid 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 40% | Valladolid 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 56% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Valencia 1.65 / Valladolid 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.854 / def 1.056 | Valladolid attack 0.775 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Valencia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Valladolid xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Valladolid kick off?
Valencia vs Valladolid kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 27 April 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Valladolid?
Valencia 2 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Valencia vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Valladolid part of?
Valencia vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 56% chance of winning, Valladolid a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valencia and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Valladolid?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 1W.
What form are Valencia and Valladolid in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Valladolid (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.85) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.78x) against Valencia's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.10
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.50
0.85
Valladolid xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Valencia and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Valencia and 0.85 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valencia's recent record stands at 8W 6D 16L from 30 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 15L across 30 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Valencia against 1.17 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 3W 2D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.87 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Valladolid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 10W 5D 15L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Valladolid away?
Valencia's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.40 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valencia
0
Draws
2
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Valladolid have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Valencia 2-1 Valladolid.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 40%, Valladolid 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Valencia) and 60% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 27% of games; Valladolid in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Valencia's recent matches and 40% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Valencia's recent games and 60% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Valladolid tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Valladolid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.65 xG and Valladolid 0.85 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Valladolid attack 0.78 / defence 1.43, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 56% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 19%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Valladolid 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.00 PPG, Valladolid 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.