Valencia 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Levante travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valencia have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estadio de Mestalla — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levante — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Levante's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Valencia) versus 1.40 (Levante). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Valencia, 0 for Levante and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2021, ended 4–3 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Levante trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valencia 67% and Levante 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 54% | Levante 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.60 xG and Levante 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.902 / defence 1.274 | Levante attack 0.967 / defence 1.641. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.142. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.641 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Valencia games / 33 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 42% | Draw 24% | Levante 34%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 80% | Levante 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 42% | Draw 24% | Levante 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Valencia 1.60 / Levante 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.902 / def 1.274 | Levante attack 0.967 / def 1.641 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Valencia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Levante xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Levante kick off?
Valencia vs Levante kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Levante?
Valencia 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Valencia vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Levante part of?
Valencia vs Levante is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 42% chance of winning, Levante a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Valencia and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Levante 0W.
What form are Valencia and Levante in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.14
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Valencia xG
Total xG
3.01
1.41
Levante xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Valencia and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Valencia and 1.41 for Levante, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia's recent record stands at 10W 12D 11L from 33 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 18L across 33 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valencia by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 5W 7D 4L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 2W 3D 11L across 16 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.24 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Levante in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 10W 12D 11L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Levante have gone 5W 10D 18L in their last 33 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Levante away?
Valencia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.38 PPG; Levante away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Valencia or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Levante in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Valencia's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Levante?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valencia at 69%, Levante at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Valencia) and 62% (Levante). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Levante in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Valencia's games and 62% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Valencia's matches and 62% of Levante's.
Do Valencia and Levante tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Levante finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.60 xG and Levante 1.41 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Levante attack 0.97 / defence 1.64, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 42% | Draw 24% | Levante 34%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 54%, Levante 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.