Valencia vs Levante Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Valencia take on Levante.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Levante travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia in La Liga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Valencia have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Valencia have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Levante — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Levante's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Valencia) versus 1.00 (Levante). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Valencia hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Levante and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Feb 2026, ended Valencia 2–0 Levante — a Valencia win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Valencia and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (last 50 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Levante trading profile (last 50 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 50% versus Levante 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Levante 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 0.99 xG and Levante 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.659 / defence 1.233 | Levante attack 0.688 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.218. Valencia's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Levante's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Valencia's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levante's projected output up. Data: built from Valencia's last 50 games and Levante's last 50.
Result probabilities: Valencia 32% | Draw 35% | Levante 34%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.17 | Draw 2.87 | Levante 2.97. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 40% (last 10 home games) | Levante 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 32% | Draw 35% | Levante 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Valencia 0.99 / Levante 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.659 / def 1.233 | Levante attack 0.688 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Levante xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Levante FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Levante kick off?
Valencia vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Estadio de Mestalla.
Where is Valencia vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Levante part of?
Valencia vs Levante is a La Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 32% chance of winning, Levante a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valencia and Levante will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Valencia vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.66x the league average against Levante's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 50 games and Levante's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
35%
2.87
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.02
1.03
Levante xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Levante Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Valencia and 1.03 for Levante, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia's recent record stands at 15W 13D 22L from 50 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 23L across 50 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.16 PPG, Levante on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 8W 8D 10L from their last 26 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 4W 8D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.26 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Levante
Blended
Valencia (Home) vs Levante (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Valencia vs Levante Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Levante in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 15W 13D 22L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while Levante have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Levante away?
Valencia's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.23 PPG; Levante away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Valencia's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Levante H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 3, Levante have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Valencia and Levante last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Levante?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 54%, Levante 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Valencia) and 46% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Valencia have failed to score in 31% of games; Levante in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Levante Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Levante matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Valencia's recent matches and 46% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Levante matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Valencia's recent games and 46% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Levante matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Valencia's recent matches and 69% of Levante's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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