Real Sociedad 0-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Sociedad (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Sociedad face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Sociedad and Cadiz meet at Reale Arena in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Sociedad have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's home record at Reale Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Cadiz (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Cadiz have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Real Sociedad's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Real Sociedad have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Cadiz managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Real Sociedad winning.
The historical record gives Real Sociedad a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 39% versus Cadiz 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 33% | Cadiz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.45 xG and Cadiz 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.912 / defence 0.992 | Cadiz attack 0.785 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 0.993. Data: 61 Real Sociedad games / 61 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Cadiz 5.00. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 50% | Cadiz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Real Sociedad 1.45 / Cadiz 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.912 / def 0.992 | Cadiz attack 0.785 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.371 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cadiz xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Real Sociedad 0 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Cadiz part of?
Real Sociedad vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 53% chance of winning, Cadiz a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Real Sociedad and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Real Sociedad 3W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Cadiz in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Cadiz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Real Sociedad's attack rating (0.91) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.79x) against Real Sociedad's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.72
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.22
0.77
Cadiz xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
5%
21.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.77 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Real Sociedad's recent record stands at 30W 15D 16L from 61 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 25L across 61 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Real Sociedad have managed 15W 8D 7L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 7W 8D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.87 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 30W 15D 16L in their last 61 games (1.72 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 14W 22D 25L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Cadiz away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.77 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Cadiz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Sociedad won 3-0 on 12 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Real Sociedad
2
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 4, Cadiz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Real Sociedad 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Cadiz?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Real Sociedad) and 40% (Cadiz) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Real Sociedad and 40% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Cadiz in 33%; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 27% of games; Cadiz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 40% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 40% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Cadiz tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Real Sociedad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Real Sociedad and Cadiz drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.45 xG and Cadiz 0.77 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Cadiz attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 33%, Cadiz 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cadiz's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.