Real Betis 0-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Betis host Celta Vigo at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Real Betis — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio Benito Villamarín: 5W 2D 2L from 9 La Liga appearances (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 3W 3D 2L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Real Betis have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Real Betis in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 50% versus Celta Vigo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 56% | Celta Vigo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.44 xG and Celta Vigo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.368 / defence 1.118 | Celta Vigo attack 0.885 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.122. Real Betis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Real Betis games / 18 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 43% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 28%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Celta Vigo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Real Betis 56% | Celta Vigo 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 43% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Real Betis 1.44 / Celta Vigo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.368 / def 1.118 | Celta Vigo attack 0.885 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Celta Vigo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Real Betis vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 January 2022 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Celta Vigo?
Real Betis 0 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Real Betis vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Celta Vigo part of?
Real Betis vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 43% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Real Betis and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Betis and Celta Vigo in?
Real Betis (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (1.37) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.47
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Celta Vigo xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.11 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Real Betis have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 10W 3D 5L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo's form line: 5W 5D 8L from 18 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Celta Vigo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Betis have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Betis are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Celta Vigo away?
Real Betis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 2.00 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Real Betis's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Real Betis
4
Draws
5
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Betis 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Celta Vigo tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 50%, Celta Vigo 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Real Betis) and 38% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 62%; Celta Vigo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Real Betis's recent matches and 25% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Real Betis's recent games and 38% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Real Betis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Real Betis 0-2 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.44 xG and Celta Vigo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Real Betis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.37 / defence 1.12 against Celta Vigo attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 43% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 28%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 56%, Celta Vigo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Celta Vigo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.