Real Betis 1-3 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Real Betis at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Atletico Madrid travel to Estadio Benito Villamarín to take on Real Betis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Benito Villamarín this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Real Betis are significantly better at Estadio Benito Villamarín than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Real Betis) versus 1.60 (Atletico Madrid). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Real Betis, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Atletico Madrid winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Real Betis trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 54% versus Atletico Madrid 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 58% | Atletico Madrid 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.75 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.115 / defence 1.208 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.223 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.125. Atletico Madrid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Real Betis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Real Betis games / 26 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 40% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 36%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Atletico Madrid 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 40% | Atletico Madrid 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 40% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Real Betis 1.75 / Atletico Madrid 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.115 / def 1.208 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.223 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Atletico Madrid xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid?
Real Betis 1 - 3 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Real Betis and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Atletico Madrid?
Record (1 meetings): Real Betis 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 1W.
What form are Real Betis and Atletico Madrid in?
Real Betis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Betis's attack at 1.11x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.10
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Real Betis xG
Total xG
3.41
1.66
Atletico Madrid xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.66 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Betis come into this having played 26 games, going 14W 4D 8L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Betis on 1.77 PPG, Atletico Madrid on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Real Betis's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Real Betis are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.81 scored and 1.31 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 14W 4D 8L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Real Betis's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.77 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Atletico Madrid won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Betis's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Real Betis
1
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Atletico Madrid 0-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 46%, Atletico Madrid 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Real Betis and 85% for Atletico Madrid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Betis have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Real Betis's games and 77% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Betis vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Real Betis's matches and 85% of Atletico Madrid's.
Do Real Betis and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Real Betis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Real Betis 1-3 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.75 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.66 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.22 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 40% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 36%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 58%, Atletico Madrid 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.77 PPG, Atletico Madrid 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.