Real Betis 3-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Benito Villamarín plays host to Real Betis versus Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Betis have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Real Betis have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
Almeria's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in La Liga this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Real Betis's 2.00 PPG return is 1.12 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.88 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Real Betis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Almeria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 38% versus Almeria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 50% | Almeria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 2.11 xG and Almeria 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.147 / defence 0.775 | Almeria attack 0.582 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.180. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Real Betis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Real Betis's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Real Betis games / 8 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 74% | Draw 18% | Almeria 8%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | Almeria 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (74%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 40% | Almeria 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 74% | Draw 18% | Almeria 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 36% | xG Real Betis 2.11 / Almeria 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.147 / def 0.775 | Almeria attack 0.582 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Almeria xG
36%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Almeria kick off?
Real Betis vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Almeria?
Real Betis 3 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Real Betis vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Almeria part of?
Real Betis vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 74% chance of winning, Almeria a 8% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Real Betis and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Betis and Almeria in?
Real Betis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Almeria (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Real Betis's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.58x) against Real Betis's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 3-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
74%
1.34
18%
5.68
8%
12.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.65
0.53
Almeria xG
1.34
74%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
12.45
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
44%
2.29
1%
103.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.9 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.53 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis's recent record stands at 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Real Betis have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Real Betis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almeria's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Almeria in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Almeria have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Almeria away?
Real Betis's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 3.00 PPG; Almeria away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Almeria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Real Betis
1
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 3, Almeria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Real Betis 3-2 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Almeria?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Real Betis) and 25% (Almeria) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Real Betis) and 25% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Almeria in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Real Betis's recent matches and 25% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Real Betis's recent games and 25% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Almeria tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Almeria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Almeria 3-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 2.11 xG and Almeria 0.53 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Almeria attack 0.58 / defence 1.39, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 74% | Draw 18% | Almeria 8%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 50%, Almeria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Almeria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.