Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Osasuna to Estadio de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio de Vallecas — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Osasuna's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Rayo Vallecano's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 4 for Osasuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 38% versus Osasuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 40% | Osasuna 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.54 xG and Osasuna 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.882 / defence 1.027 | Osasuna attack 0.944 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.045. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Rayo Vallecano games / 42 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 48% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 24%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Osasuna 4.17. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Osasuna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 16 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 48% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.54 / Osasuna 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.882 / def 1.027 | Osasuna attack 0.944 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Osasuna xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 16 September 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 48% chance of winning, Osasuna a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Record (6 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 4W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.88x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.56
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.55
1.01
Osasuna xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.01 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano's recent record stands at 9W 15D 18L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 18L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.00 PPG, Osasuna on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano have managed 4W 8D 8L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.19 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.00 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Osasuna in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Osasuna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
6
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Osasuna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 55%, Osasuna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rayo Vallecano) and 60% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 55% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 60% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Osasuna 3-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.54 xG and Osasuna 1.01 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Osasuna attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 48% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 24%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 40%, Osasuna 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.