Osasuna 0-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sevilla at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sevilla — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Sevilla's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osasuna, 1 for Sevilla and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Sevilla winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sevilla in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 41% versus Sevilla 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 32% | Sevilla 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.82 xG and Sevilla 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.876 / defence 1.336 | Sevilla attack 0.787 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.119. Data: 22 Osasuna games / 22 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 33% | Sevilla 43%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Sevilla 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 60% | Sevilla 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 33% | Sevilla 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Osasuna 0.82 / Sevilla 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.876 / def 1.336 | Sevilla attack 0.787 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sevilla xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Sevilla kick off?
Osasuna vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Osasuna 0 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Osasuna vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Sevilla part of?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 24% chance of winning, Sevilla a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Osasuna and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Sevilla (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.88) and Sevilla's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
24%
4.10
33%
3.07
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.99
1.18
Sevilla xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 16.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.18 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 7W 7D 8L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 13W 7D 2L from 22 games, 2.09 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 5W 4D 2L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.55 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Sevilla in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 13W 7D 2L in their last 22 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.00 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sevilla in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Sevilla runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 54%, Sevilla 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Osasuna and 9% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sevilla in 54%; Osasuna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Osasuna's recent matches and 36% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Osasuna's recent games and 9% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Sevilla tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osasuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 23, as Osasuna and Sevilla drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.82 xG and Sevilla 1.18 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osasuna fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sevilla landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against Sevilla attack 0.79 / defence 0.83, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 24% | Draw 33% | Sevilla 43%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 32%, Sevilla 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.