Osasuna 1-3 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 0.80 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Osasuna, 4 for Real Sociedad and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Real Sociedad trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Real Sociedad 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 40% | Real Sociedad 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.57 xG and Real Sociedad 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.069 / defence 1.038 | Real Sociedad attack 0.905 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.098. Data: 50 Osasuna games / 50 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Real Sociedad 4.00. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Real Sociedad 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Osasuna 1.57 / Real Sociedad 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.069 / def 1.038 | Real Sociedad attack 0.905 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Real Sociedad xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Osasuna 1 - 3 Real Sociedad.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad part of?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 50% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osasuna and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Record (8 meetings): Osasuna 3W | Draws 1 | Real Sociedad 4W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.07) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.97
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.61
1.03
Real Sociedad xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
5%
19.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.03 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 15W 18D 17L from 50 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 23L across 50 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.26 PPG, Real Sociedad on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 13W 7D 4L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 0.98 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 15W 18D 17L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Sociedad away?
Osasuna's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.92 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Real Sociedad runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
6
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 71%, Real Sociedad 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osasuna) and 42% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Osasuna's recent matches and 38% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Osasuna's recent games and 42% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 1-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.57 xG and Real Sociedad 1.03 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Real Sociedad attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 50% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Real Sociedad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Real Sociedad 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.26 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.