Osasuna 2-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Osasuna at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Granada CF meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osasuna have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.56. Conceding 2.56 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Granada CF have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Osasuna's 1.30 PPG return is 0.63 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.67 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Granada CF — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 33% versus Granada CF 78%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Granada CF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.49 xG and Granada CF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.681 / defence 1.021 | Granada CF attack 1.059 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.217. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Osasuna games / 9 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 41% | Draw 27% | Granada CF 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Granada CF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Granada CF 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 41% | Draw 27% | Granada CF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Osasuna 1.49 / Granada CF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.681 / def 1.021 | Granada CF attack 1.059 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Granada CF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Granada CF kick off?
Osasuna vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Osasuna vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Granada CF part of?
Osasuna vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 41% chance of winning, Granada CF a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Granada CF?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Granada CF in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.68x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (1.06x) against Osasuna's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.72
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Granada CF xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.31 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 5L across 9 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.11 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Granada CF's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Granada CF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.67 scored and 2.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 78%.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Granada CF away?
Osasuna's home record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.25 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Granada CF in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Granada CF won 3-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Osasuna
1
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Granada CF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Granada CF 3-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Granada CF?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 25%, Granada CF 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Osasuna) and 75% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Osasuna have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Osasuna's recent matches and 75% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Osasuna's recent games and 75% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Granada CF tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Granada CF 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.49 xG and Granada CF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Granada CF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.68 / defence 1.02 against Granada CF attack 1.06 / defence 1.42, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 41% | Draw 27% | Granada CF 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Granada CF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Granada CF's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.