Osasuna 2-4 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Osasuna at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Girona (all games): 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Girona away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Girona arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Osasuna edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Osasuna 2–1 Girona — a Osasuna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 41% versus Girona 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 39% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.93 xG and Girona 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.733 / defence 0.910 | Girona attack 1.186 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.223. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Osasuna's last 49 games and Girona's last 49.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 30% | Girona 45%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.92 | Draw 3.38 | Girona 2.23. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 30% | Girona 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Osasuna 0.93 / Girona 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.733 / def 0.910 | Girona attack 1.186 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Girona (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Girona xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Girona FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Girona kick off?
Osasuna vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Osasuna 2 - 4 Girona.
Where is Osasuna vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Girona part of?
Osasuna vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 25% chance of winning, Girona a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osasuna and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Osasuna vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Girona's attack (1.19x) against Osasuna's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 49 games and Girona's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
25%
3.92
30%
3.38
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.25
1.32
Girona xG
3.92
25%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.32 for Girona, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 9D 21L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 22W 11D 16L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Osasuna against 1.57 for Girona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 2D 10L).
On the road, Girona have gone 7W 8D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.69 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 67%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Girona
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Girona in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Girona have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Girona away?
Osasuna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.58 PPG; Girona away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Girona in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won Girona 4-0 Osasuna on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 38%, Girona 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Osasuna) and 54% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Girona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Osasuna's recent matches and 71% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 54% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Osasuna's recent matches and 71% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Osasuna 2-4 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.93 xG and Girona 1.32 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona outscored their 1.32 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against Girona attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 25% | Draw 30% | Girona 45%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Girona 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Girona's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.35 PPG, Girona 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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