Osasuna vs Celta Vigo Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Osasuna at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Celta Vigo.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 14 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Osasuna — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Osasuna at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Celta Vigo stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 0.80 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 10 H2H matches, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2026, ended Osasuna 2–1 Celta Vigo — a Osasuna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Celta Vigo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 48% | Celta Vigo 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Osasuna surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Celta Vigo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.01 xG and Celta Vigo 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.767 / defence 0.896 | Celta Vigo attack 0.638 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.218. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Celta Vigo's attack rating of 0.638 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Osasuna's last 50 games and Celta Vigo's last 50.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 40% | Draw 37% | Celta Vigo 23%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.50 | Draw 2.68 | Celta Vigo 4.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Celta Vigo's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 76% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Celta Vigo's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 60% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights