Mallorca 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 6W 3D 1L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Valencia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valencia's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Mallorca 1W, Valencia 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 44% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 38% | Valencia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.28 xG and Valencia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.909 / defence 0.828 | Valencia attack 0.914 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.049. Data: 73 Mallorca games / 73 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 29% | Valencia 23%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Valencia 4.35. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Valencia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 29% | Valencia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Mallorca 1.28 / Valencia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.909 / def 0.828 | Valencia attack 0.914 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Valencia xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Valencia kick off?
Mallorca vs Valencia kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Valencia?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Mallorca vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Valencia part of?
Mallorca vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 48% chance of winning, Valencia a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mallorca and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valencia?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Valencia in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Valencia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.91x the league average against Valencia's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.91x) against Mallorca's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.45
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.08
0.79
Valencia xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.79 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 73 games, going 22W 17D 34L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.21 PPG from 73 outings (22W 22D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Mallorca against 1.21 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 15W 11D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.94 points per game from 36 outings (8W 10D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Valencia in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 22W 17D 34L in their last 73 games (1.14 PPG), while Valencia have gone 22W 22D 29L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Valencia away?
Mallorca's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.56 PPG; Valencia away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
5
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Valencia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Valencia?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Valencia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 47% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 31% of games; Valencia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 58% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 47% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Valencia tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Valencia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Valencia 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.28 xG and Valencia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.91 / defence 0.83 against Valencia attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 48% | Draw 29% | Valencia 23%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Valencia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Valencia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.