Mallorca 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mallorca at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 5D 2L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valencia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mallorca 0W, Valencia 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 54% and Valencia 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 46% | Valencia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.83 xG and Valencia 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.973 / defence 1.108 | Valencia attack 1.033 / defence 1.644. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.166. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.644 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Mallorca games / 25 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Valencia 3.70. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Valencia 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Mallorca 1.83 / Valencia 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.973 / def 1.108 | Valencia attack 1.033 / def 1.644 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Valencia xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Valencia kick off?
Mallorca vs Valencia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Valencia?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Mallorca vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Valencia part of?
Mallorca vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 48% chance of winning, Valencia a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mallorca and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Valencia 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Valencia in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.97x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (1.03x) against Mallorca's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.87
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Mallorca xG
Total xG
3.16
1.33
Valencia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
4%
23.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.33 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 8D 10L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Mallorca against 1.12 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 4W 6D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 79%.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Valencia in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Valencia have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Valencia away?
Mallorca's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.50 PPG; Valencia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
5
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Valencia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Valencia?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Mallorca, 83% for Valencia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mallorca) and 75% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mallorca's games and 83% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mallorca's recent games and 75% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Valencia tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Valencia in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Mallorca 0-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.83 xG and Valencia 1.33 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Valencia attack 1.03 / defence 1.64, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 48% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 46%, Valencia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.08 PPG, Valencia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.