Mallorca 0-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Sevilla meet at Visit Mallorca Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca at Visit Mallorca Estadi this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sevilla (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Mallorca's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sevilla's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Mallorca 0W, Sevilla 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 48% versus Sevilla 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 44% | Sevilla 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.14 xG and Sevilla 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.818 / defence 0.980 | Sevilla attack 1.052 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.203. Data: 46 Mallorca games / 46 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 39%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Sevilla 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 50% | Sevilla 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Mallorca 1.14 / Sevilla 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.818 / def 0.980 | Sevilla attack 1.052 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sevilla xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Sevilla kick off?
Mallorca vs Sevilla kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Mallorca vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Sevilla part of?
Mallorca vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 34% chance of winning, Sevilla a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mallorca and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
Record (2 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 2 | Sevilla 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sevilla (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (1.05x) against Mallorca's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
34%
2.98
28%
3.58
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.38
1.24
Sevilla xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.24 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 12D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (19W 19D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Mallorca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (7W 11D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.33 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 19W 19D 8L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Sevilla away?
Sevilla's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.35 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sevilla in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
4
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Sevilla have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 48%, Sevilla 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Mallorca and 22% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sevilla in 35%; Mallorca have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mallorca's recent matches and 56% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Mallorca's recent games and 22% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Sevilla tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Mallorca 0-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.14 xG and Sevilla 1.24 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Sevilla attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 39%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 44%, Sevilla 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.