Mallorca 1-0 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Real Madrid at Visit Mallorca Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Visit Mallorca Estadi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mallorca at 1.60 PPG versus Real Madrid's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Real Madrid have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Mallorca.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–4 with Real Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Real Madrid in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 42% versus Real Madrid 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 37% | Real Madrid 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.85 xG and Real Madrid 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.794 / defence 0.798 | Real Madrid attack 1.446 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.998. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Mallorca's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Mallorca games / 57 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 27% | Draw 30% | Real Madrid 43%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Real Madrid 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Real Madrid 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 27% | Draw 30% | Real Madrid 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Mallorca 0.85 / Real Madrid 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.794 / def 0.798 | Real Madrid attack 1.446 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Real Madrid xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Madrid kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Real Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 27% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mallorca and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Madrid in?
Mallorca (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.30
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.01
1.15
Real Madrid xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.15 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 13D 27L from 57 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 40W 11D 6L across 57 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 11W 8D 9L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 20W 3D 5L across 28 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.11 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 40W 11D 6L in their last 57 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.46 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Real Madrid won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
1
Draws
7
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Real Madrid have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Mallorca 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 43%, Real Madrid 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mallorca) and 64% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Real Madrid in 32%; Mallorca have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mallorca's recent matches and 61% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mallorca's recent games and 64% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Real Madrid 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Real Madrid 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.85 xG and Real Madrid 1.15 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Madrid landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 0.80 against Real Madrid attack 1.45 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 27% | Draw 30% | Real Madrid 43%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 37%, Real Madrid 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Madrid's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.