Mallorca 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Osasuna travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mallorca have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Mallorca's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Mallorca) versus 0.90 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Mallorca, 3 for Osasuna and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Mallorca 0–1 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 45% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Osasuna 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mallorca surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Osasuna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.04 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.772 / defence 1.015 | Osasuna attack 0.784 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.136. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Mallorca's last 60 games and Osasuna's last 60.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.63 | Draw 3.20 | Osasuna 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Monday 10 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Mallorca 1.04 / Osasuna 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.772 / def 1.015 | Osasuna attack 0.784 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Osasuna xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Osasuna kick off?
Mallorca vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 10 February 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Mallorca vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Osasuna part of?
Mallorca vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 38% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mallorca and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Mallorca vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.77) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 60 games and Osasuna's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.20
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.95
0.90
Osasuna xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.90 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 19D 24L from 60 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 23L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.17 PPG, Osasuna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 11D 8L from their last 29 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 7W 9D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 19D 24L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Osasuna away?
Mallorca's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Mallorca's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 2, Osasuna have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 45%, Osasuna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Mallorca) and 48% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 34% of games; Osasuna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mallorca's recent matches and 52% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 48% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Mallorca's recent matches and 69% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 23, as Mallorca and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Osasuna 0.90 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 31%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.17 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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