Levante 1-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 outings — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: D D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayo Vallecano stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.67 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levante 67% | Rayo Vallecano 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 33% | Rayo Vallecano 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.53 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.255 / defence 1.372 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.663 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 0.896 / away 0.891. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rayo Vallecano bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Levante games / 3 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 52% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 18%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Rayo Vallecano 5.56. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 67% | Rayo Vallecano 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 52% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Levante 1.53 / Rayo Vallecano 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.255 / def 1.372 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.663 / def 1.358 | league avg home 0.896 / away 0.891 • Poisson stance: Levante (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Rayo Vallecano xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Levante vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Rayo Vallecano?
Levante 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Levante vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Levante vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 52% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levante and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Rayo Vallecano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Rayo Vallecano in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.25x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.37
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Levante xG
Total xG
2.34
0.81
Rayo Vallecano xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
4%
25.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Levante and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Levante and 0.81 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.67 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Rayo Vallecano in 0%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Levante or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Rayo Vallecano runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Rayo Vallecano won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levante's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
1
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Rayo Vallecano?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Levante 67% BTTS, Rayo Vallecano 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Levante) and 67% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 33%; Levante have failed to score in 33% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Levante's recent matches and 0% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Levante's recent games and 67% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante and Rayo Vallecano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante and Rayo Vallecano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.53 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.81 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 1.25 / defence 1.37 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.66 / defence 1.36, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 52% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 18%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 33%, Rayo Vallecano 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.67 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.