Girona 1-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Girona welcome Valencia to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 15 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Girona's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Valencia — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Valencia have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 1.10 PPG, Valencia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Girona's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Girona, 2 for Valencia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Girona 0–2 Valencia — a Valencia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Valencia in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 54% versus Valencia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 62% | Valencia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.17 xG and Valencia 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.141 / defence 1.257 | Valencia attack 0.973 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.125. Valencia's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Girona's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Data: built from Girona's last 65 games and Valencia's last 65.
Result probabilities: Girona 56% | Draw 20% | Valencia 24%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.80 | Draw 4.89 | Valencia 4.19. The model has a clear lean to Girona (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Valencia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 70% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 56% | Draw 20% | Valencia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Girona 2.17 / Valencia 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.141 / def 1.257 | Valencia attack 0.973 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Girona (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Valencia xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Girona vs Valencia kick off?
Girona vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Valencia?
Girona 1 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Girona vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Valencia part of?
Girona vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 56% chance of winning, Valencia a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Girona and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 65 games and Valencia's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
56%
1.80
20%
4.89
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Girona xG
Total xG
3.55
1.38
Valencia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
3%
36.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Girona and 1.38 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 34W 12D 19L from 65 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Valencia, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 27L across 65 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valencia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 21W 4D 7L from their last 32 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valencia's away record stands at 5W 10D 17L across their last 32 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Valencia
Blended
Girona (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Girona vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Valencia in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 34W 12D 19L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while Valencia have gone 19W 19D 27L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Valencia away?
Girona's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.09 PPG; Valencia away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valencia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Valencia?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 53%, Valencia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Girona and 47% for Valencia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Valencia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Valencia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Girona's recent matches and 53% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Girona's matches and 47% of Valencia's.
Do Girona and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Girona's recent matches and 72% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona and Valencia finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.17 xG and Valencia 1.38 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Girona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 56% | Draw 20% | Valencia 24%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 62%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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