Girona 4-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 69% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Espanyol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Espanyol at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Girona have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Girona's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Espanyol stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Espanyol have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 away fixtures (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.40 PPG versus Espanyol's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Girona, 0 for Espanyol and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Girona 2–1 Espanyol — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Espanyol trading profile (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 33% versus Espanyol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 42% | Espanyol 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.37 xG and Espanyol 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.275 / defence 1.170 | Espanyol attack 0.744 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.064. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.275 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Espanyol's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Espanyol's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Girona's last 51 games and Espanyol's last 12.
Result probabilities: Girona 69% | Draw 18% | Espanyol 13%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.44 | Draw 5.58 | Espanyol 7.82. The model has a clear lean to Girona (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Espanyol's last 6 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Espanyol 50% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 69% | Draw 18% | Espanyol 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Girona 2.37 / Espanyol 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.275 / def 1.170 | Espanyol attack 0.744 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Girona (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Espanyol xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Espanyol FAQs
What time does Girona vs Espanyol kick off?
Girona vs Espanyol kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Espanyol?
Girona 4 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Girona vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Espanyol part of?
Girona vs Espanyol is a La Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 69% chance of winning, Espanyol a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Girona and Espanyol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.27) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 51 games and Espanyol's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.58
13%
7.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Girona xG
Total xG
3.30
0.93
Espanyol xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
7.82
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
83.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Espanyol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Girona and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Girona and 0.93 for Espanyol, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Espanyol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Girona have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 5W 2D 5L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Espanyol's form line: 3W 1D 8L from 12 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Espanyol.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 6 home games (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Espanyol have gone 0W 1D 5L from their last 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 0.92 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
Girona (Home) vs Espanyol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Girona vs Espanyol Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Espanyol away?
Girona's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.67 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Girona or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Espanyol in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 16 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Nov 2024, when Girona won Girona 4-1 Espanyol.
Girona's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Girona
3
Draws
0
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Espanyol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Espanyol?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 3, Espanyol have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Espanyol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 January 2026: Espanyol 0-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Espanyol?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Espanyol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Girona) and 50% (Espanyol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Girona have failed to score in 33% of games; Espanyol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Espanyol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Espanyol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 50% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Espanyol matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Girona's matches and 50% of Espanyol's.
Do Girona and Espanyol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Girona's recent matches and 50% of Espanyol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Espanyol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Espanyol 4-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.37 xG and Espanyol 0.93 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.27 / defence 1.17 against Espanyol attack 0.74 / defence 1.29, drawn from 51/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 69% | Draw 18% | Espanyol 13%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 42%, Espanyol 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Espanyol's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Girona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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