Celta Vigo 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Celta Vigo take on Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Celta Vigo host Villarreal at Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 games at Abanca-Balaídos this term (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.57 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abanca-Balaídos this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal away from home this season: 0W 4D 2L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Celta Vigo 1.10 PPG, Villarreal 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Celta Vigo trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Villarreal trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Celta Vigo 25% | Villarreal 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 33% | Villarreal 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 0.96 xG and Villarreal 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.853 / defence 1.397 | Villarreal attack 0.636 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.098. Data: 13 Celta Vigo games / 12 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 35% | Villarreal 33%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Villarreal 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 43% | Villarreal 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 35% | Villarreal 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Celta Vigo 0.96 / Villarreal 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.853 / def 1.397 | Villarreal attack 0.636 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Villarreal xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Villarreal kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Villarreal part of?
Celta Vigo vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 32% chance of winning, Villarreal a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Celta Vigo and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Villarreal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Celta Vigo and Villarreal in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (0.85) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
35%
2.82
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
1.93
0.97
Villarreal xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.1 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.97 for Villarreal, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 3D 6L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 3W 6D 3L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.00 PPG, Villarreal on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 0W 4D 2L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Villarreal in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Villarreal away?
Celta Vigo's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.67 PPG; Villarreal away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Villarreal in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2025, when Celta Vigo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Celta Vigo 33% BTTS, Villarreal 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Celta Vigo and 33% for Villarreal.
On the defensive side: Villarreal in 50%; Celta Vigo have failed to score in 50% of games; Villarreal in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 33% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 33% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Celta Vigo and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 14, as Celta Vigo and Villarreal drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 0.96 xG and Villarreal 0.97 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Villarreal attack 0.64 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 35% | Villarreal 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 33%, Villarreal 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Villarreal's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG, Villarreal 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.