Celta Vigo 0-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's home record at Abanca-Balaídos: 1W 0D 4L from 5 La Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 2W 2D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Sociedad are 1.10 PPG clear of Celta Vigo in recent La Liga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Sociedad — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Celta Vigo 30% | Real Sociedad 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 40% | Real Sociedad 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.07 xG and Real Sociedad 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.719 / defence 1.219 | Real Sociedad attack 1.169 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.054. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Celta Vigo games / 10 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 26% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Real Sociedad 2.17. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 40% | Real Sociedad 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 26% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Celta Vigo 1.07 / Real Sociedad 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.719 / def 1.219 | Real Sociedad attack 1.169 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Real Sociedad xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Celta Vigo 0 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad part of?
Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 26% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (0.72) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.17x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
26%
3.92
29%
3.48
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.57
1.50
Real Sociedad xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.50 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 1D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Real Sociedad's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.40 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Real Sociedad in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.60 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
5
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 40%, Real Sociedad 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Celta Vigo) and 60% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Celta Vigo's games and 80% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 60% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Celta Vigo 0-2 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.07 xG and Real Sociedad 1.50 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.72 / defence 1.22 against Real Sociedad attack 1.17 / defence 1.42, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 26% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 40%, Real Sociedad 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.