Cadiz 2-2 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 41%, yet the head-to-head data favours Sevilla — this Cadiz vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cadiz's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sevilla's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Cadiz's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) — Cadiz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sevilla in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Sevilla, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Cadiz 0–2 Sevilla — a Sevilla win.
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 36% versus Sevilla 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 30% | Sevilla 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cadiz surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Sevilla have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.16 xG and Sevilla 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.796 / defence 0.801 | Sevilla attack 0.936 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.182. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Cadiz's last 48 games and Sevilla's last 47.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.43 | Draw 3.15 | Sevilla 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 30% (last 10 home games) | Sevilla 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Cadiz 1.16 / Sevilla 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.796 / def 0.801 | Sevilla attack 0.936 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sevilla xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Sevilla FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Sevilla kick off?
Cadiz vs Sevilla kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Cadiz 2 - 2 Sevilla.
Where is Cadiz vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Sevilla part of?
Cadiz vs Sevilla is a La Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 41% chance of winning, Sevilla a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cadiz and Sevilla will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Cadiz vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.94x) against Cadiz's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 48 games and Sevilla's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.15
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.04
0.89
Sevilla xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Sevilla Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.89 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Cadiz have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 12W 15D 20L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Sevilla's form line: 15W 13D 19L from 47 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Cadiz against 1.23 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (9W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Cadiz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 6W 6D 10L from their last 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.30 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 62%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Sevilla Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 15D 20L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Sevilla away?
Cadiz's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.59 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sevilla in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cadiz and Sevilla, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
2
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Sevilla H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Sevilla?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 1, Sevilla have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Sevilla last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2024: Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Sevilla 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Cadiz) and 46% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Sevilla Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Sevilla matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 59% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Sevilla matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Cadiz's recent games and 46% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cadiz and Sevilla share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 11, as Cadiz and Sevilla drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.16 xG and Sevilla 0.89 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sevilla outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.80 / defence 0.80 against Sevilla attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 30%, Sevilla 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sevilla's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.09 PPG, Sevilla 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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