Cadiz 0-2 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 36%, yet in-form Real Sociedad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cadiz vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Real Sociedad meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 0.67 PPG across 3 La Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 1L. Last five: D D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Sociedad (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 La Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Real Sociedad have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Real Sociedad are the stronger side — 1.33 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cadiz 100% and Real Sociedad 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 33% | Real Sociedad 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.45 xG and Real Sociedad 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 1.082 / defence 1.399 | Real Sociedad attack 0.966 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 0.909 / away 1.005. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Cadiz games / 3 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 36% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 32%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Real Sociedad 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 100% | Real Sociedad 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 36% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Cadiz 1.45 / Real Sociedad 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 1.082 / def 1.399 | Real Sociedad attack 0.966 / def 1.471 | league avg home 0.909 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Real Sociedad xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Cadiz 0 - 2 Real Sociedad.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Sociedad part of?
Cadiz vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 36% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cadiz and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cadiz and Real Sociedad in?
Cadiz (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 1.08x the league average against Real Sociedad's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (0.97x) against Cadiz's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.22
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.81
1.36
Real Sociedad xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.36 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Sociedad's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Real Sociedad, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Real Sociedad are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Real Sociedad
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Cadiz or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Sociedad won 3-0 on 12 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
2
Draws
4
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Sociedad?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Real Sociedad have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Real Sociedad 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Cadiz, 33% for Real Sociedad — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cadiz and 33% for Real Sociedad.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cadiz's games and 33% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cadiz vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 33% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Cadiz 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.45 xG and Real Sociedad 1.36 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 1.08 / defence 1.40 against Real Sociedad attack 0.97 / defence 1.47, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 36% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 32%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 33%, Real Sociedad 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Cadiz managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.