Cadiz 1-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Real Madrid at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Madrid are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cadiz, 0 for Real Madrid and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 47% versus Real Madrid 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 39% | Real Madrid 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.07 xG and Real Madrid 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 1.009 / defence 1.193 | Real Madrid attack 1.177 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.132. Data: 36 Cadiz games / 36 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Real Madrid 2.08. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 50% | Real Madrid 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Cadiz 1.07 / Real Madrid 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 1.009 / def 1.193 | Real Madrid attack 1.177 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Real Madrid xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Madrid kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Madrid kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Real Madrid.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Madrid part of?
Cadiz vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 24% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cadiz and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Real Madrid 0W.
What form are Cadiz and Real Madrid in?
Cadiz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cadiz's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
24%
4.10
27%
3.68
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.66
1.59
Real Madrid xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
5%
20.06
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.59 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 14D 15L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Real Madrid's form line: 26W 6D 4L from 36 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (3W 8D 7L).
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 13W 2D 3L from 18 away games — 2.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.19 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Real Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 7W 14D 15L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 26W 6D 4L in their last 36 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.94 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.28 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Real Madrid runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Real Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
2
Draws
4
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Real Madrid have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 50%, Real Madrid 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 67% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cadiz's games and 61% of Real Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cadiz vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 67% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Real Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 37, as Cadiz and Real Madrid drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.07 xG and Real Madrid 1.59 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Real Madrid attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 24% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 39%, Real Madrid 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Madrid's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.