Cadiz 0-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cadiz face Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cadiz have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Rayo Vallecano have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Cadiz, 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Cadiz, 2 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Cadiz 1–0 Rayo Vallecano — a Cadiz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 36% versus Rayo Vallecano 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 30% | Rayo Vallecano 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.26 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.938 / defence 0.870 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.899 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.220. Data: built from Cadiz's last 44 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 44.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 43% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 28%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.34 | Draw 3.39 | Rayo Vallecano 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Rayo Vallecano 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, matchday 7 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 43% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cadiz 1.26 / Rayo Vallecano 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.938 / def 0.870 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.899 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rayo Vallecano xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano is a La Liga fixture (matchday 7) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 43% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.94) and Rayo Vallecano's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.90x) against Cadiz's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 44 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.39
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.95 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cadiz come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 14D 18L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.34 PPG from 44 outings (16W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Cadiz against 1.34 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cadiz's home form reads 9W 7D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Cadiz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.18 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
Cadiz (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
❓ Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Cadiz's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.55 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rayo Vallecano won Rayo Vallecano 5-1 Cadiz on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
2
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Rayo Vallecano 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cadiz) and 46% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 32%; Cadiz have failed to score in 36% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 46% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 46% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.26 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 43% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 28%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 30%, Rayo Vallecano 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.14 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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