Cadiz 1-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cadiz face Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cadiz at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Celta Vigo's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cadiz, 0.60 for Celta Vigo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2022, ended Cadiz 0–3 Celta Vigo — a Celta Vigo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 40% versus Celta Vigo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 34% | Celta Vigo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.31 xG and Celta Vigo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.826 / defence 1.044 | Celta Vigo attack 0.975 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.039. Data: built from Cadiz's last 74 games and Celta Vigo's last 74.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 42% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 30%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.36 | Draw 3.63 | Celta Vigo 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cadiz are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 30% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 42% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Cadiz 1.31 / Celta Vigo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.826 / def 1.044 | Celta Vigo attack 0.975 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Celta Vigo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Cadiz vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Cadiz 1 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo part of?
Cadiz vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 42% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cadiz and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Cadiz vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.83) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.97x) against Cadiz's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 74 games and Celta Vigo's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.63
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Celta Vigo xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.06 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz's recent record stands at 17W 26D 31L from 74 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 32L across 74 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Cadiz against 1.16 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 9W 15D 13L from their last 37 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 9W 10D 18L across their last 37 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.14 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Cadiz (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 17W 26D 31L in their last 74 games (1.04 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 22W 20D 32L in their last 74 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Celta Vigo away?
Cadiz's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.14 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won Celta Vigo 3-0 Cadiz on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2024: Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 43%, Celta Vigo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cadiz) and 38% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 32%; Cadiz have failed to score in 38% of games; Celta Vigo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Celta Vigo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cadiz's recent matches and 38% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 38% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Cadiz's recent matches and 62% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cadiz edge out Celta Vigo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Celta Vigo 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.31 xG and Celta Vigo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Celta Vigo attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 42% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 30%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 34%, Celta Vigo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.04 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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