Alaves 1-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Villarreal at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Villarreal's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Alaves have won 1, Villarreal 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Alaves 0–3 Villarreal — a Villarreal win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 46% and Villarreal 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 38% | Villarreal 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alaves surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Villarreal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.82 xG and Villarreal 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.641 / defence 1.007 | Villarreal attack 1.167 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.136. Alaves's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Alaves's last 64 games and Villarreal's last 63.
Result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 49%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.34 | Draw 3.55 | Villarreal 2.05. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 50% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Alaves 0.82 / Villarreal 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.641 / def 1.007 | Villarreal attack 1.167 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Villarreal xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
Alaves vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 1 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Alaves vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Villarreal part of?
Alaves vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 23% chance of winning, Villarreal a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Alaves and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Alaves vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.64) and Villarreal's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 64 games and Villarreal's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
23%
4.34
28%
3.55
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.16
1.33
Villarreal xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
6%
16.48
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.4 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Alaves and 1.33 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 18D 28L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 26W 19D 18L from 63 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 13W 9D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.79 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 78%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 18D 28L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 26W 19D 18L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won Villarreal 5-2 Alaves.
Alaves's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 3, Villarreal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 39%, Villarreal 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Alaves) and 58% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Villarreal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Alaves's games and 77% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alaves and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Alaves's recent games and 58% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Villarreal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Alaves's recent matches and 77% of Villarreal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Villarreal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.82 xG and Villarreal 1.33 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.64 / defence 1.01 against Villarreal attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 23% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 49%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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