Alaves 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Villarreal at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Villarreal.

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Match Analysis

Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Villarreal have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Villarreal's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.40 PPG, Villarreal 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Alaves have won 1, Villarreal 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Alaves 1–1 Villarreal — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Alaves in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Villarreal in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 44% and Villarreal 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 35% | Villarreal 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.49 xG and Villarreal 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.777 / defence 1.127 | Villarreal attack 1.209 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.175. Alaves's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.49. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.462 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Villarreal have an above-average attack rating of 1.209, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Alaves's last 23 games and Villarreal's last 61.

Result probabilities: Alaves 34% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 39%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.95 | Draw 3.63 | Villarreal 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 30% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 80% (last 10 away games).

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