Alaves 1-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 5L this season (9 games, 1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Alaves against 1.20 for Real Sociedad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Real Sociedad 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 39% | Real Sociedad 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.05 xG and Real Sociedad 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.760 / defence 1.197 | Real Sociedad attack 0.935 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.122. Alaves's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Alaves games / 18 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 40%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Real Sociedad 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 44% | Real Sociedad 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Alaves 1.05 / Real Sociedad 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.760 / def 1.197 | Real Sociedad attack 0.935 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Real Sociedad xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Alaves vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 January 2022 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Alaves 1 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Alaves vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Sociedad part of?
Alaves vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 30% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alaves and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Real Sociedad in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.76) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (0.94x) against Alaves's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.24
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.31
1.26
Real Sociedad xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Alaves and 1.26 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 3D 11L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 3W 1D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.11 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alaves
3
Draws
2
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-3 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Sociedad?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 44%, Real Sociedad 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Alaves) and 44% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 33%; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Alaves's recent matches and 44% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alaves's recent games and 44% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Alaves and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Real Sociedad finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.05 xG and Real Sociedad 1.26 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Real Sociedad attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 30% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 40%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 39%, Real Sociedad 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.