Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 xG and Suwon City FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.102 / defence 0.960 | Suwon City FC attack 0.857 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.129. Data: 36 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 36 Suwon City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 33% | Suwon City FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Suwon City FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Suwon City FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 33% | Suwon City FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 / Suwon City FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.102 / def 0.960 | Suwon City FC attack 0.857 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Suwon City FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
42%
2.35
33%
3.05
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Suwon City FC xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.93 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 43W 21D 12L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 27W 18D 31L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.19 PPG from 37 outings (24W 9D 4L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 9W 11D 17L from 37 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 games (1.97 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%, Suwon City FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 51% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 51% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 51% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 3-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 xG and Suwon City FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Suwon City FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 33% | Suwon City FC 25%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.