Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.07 xG and Incheon United 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.453 / defence 1.050 | Incheon United attack 0.897 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 0.690. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 2 Incheon United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 69% | Draw 22% | Incheon United 9%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Incheon United 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 69% | Draw 22% | Incheon United 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.07 / Incheon United 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.453 / def 1.050 | Incheon United attack 0.897 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.147 / away 0.690 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Incheon United xG
43%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 10:00 on Tuesday 9 March 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 69% chance of winning, Incheon United a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.45) and Incheon United's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.90x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
69%
1.45
22%
4.57
9%
11.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.72
0.65
Incheon United xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
11.03
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
87.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.65 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Incheon United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Incheon United 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.07 xG and Incheon United 0.65 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.45 / defence 1.05 against Incheon United attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 69% | Draw 22% | Incheon United 9%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.