Suwon City FC 1-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet in-form Gwangju FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Suwon City FC welcome Gwangju FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 25 June 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Gwangju FC's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Suwon City FC, 3 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Suwon City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon City FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gwangju FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 63% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 60% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and Gwangju FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.975 / defence 0.968 | Gwangju FC attack 1.123 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.193. Data: 51 Suwon City FC games / 51 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Gwangju FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Gwangju FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gwangju FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 90% | Gwangju FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jun 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Gwangju FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Suwon City FC 1.58 / Gwangju FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.975 / def 0.968 | Gwangju FC attack 1.123 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gwangju FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 25 June 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (4 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 3W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.97) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.07
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
Gwangju FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.30 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 8D 21L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (16W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Suwon City FC's home form reads 5W 5D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 9W 8D 21L in their last 38 games (0.92 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gwangju FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.05 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gwangju FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 68%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Suwon City FC) and 26% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Gwangju FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and Gwangju FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Gwangju FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Gwangju FC 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 60%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.