Suwon City FC 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 1.40 PPG versus Daegu FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 62% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Daegu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.998 / defence 1.329 | Daegu FC attack 0.723 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Suwon City FC games / 33 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Suwon City FC 60% | Daegu FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Suwon City FC 1.12 / Daegu FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.998 / def 1.329 | Daegu FC attack 0.723 / def 1.195 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Daegu FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 34% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.00) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.56
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.21
Daegu FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.21 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 12W 9D 13L from 34 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 11L across 34 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.32 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 7W 3D 6L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 62%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Suwon City FC) and 44% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 31%; Daegu FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Suwon City FC's games and 50% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 44% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.33 against Daegu FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 38%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Daegu FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.32 PPG, Daegu FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.