Suwon Bluewings 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Suwon Bluewings take on Jeonbuk Motors.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Jeonbuk Motors at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.91 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.899 / defence 1.093 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.984 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 0.971. Data: 6 Suwon Bluewings games / 6 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 27% | Draw 39% | Jeonbuk Motors 34%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 27% | Draw 39% | Jeonbuk Motors 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 43% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.91 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.899 / def 1.093 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.984 / def 1.050 | league avg home 0.961 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Jeonbuk Motors xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 27% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.74
39%
2.55
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.95
1.04
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.04 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon Bluewings 1-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.91 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.04 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 27% | Draw 39% | Jeonbuk Motors 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.