Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 February 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG and Gwangju FC 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gwangju FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 0.679. Data: 0 Suwon Bluewings games / 0 Gwangju FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 44% | Draw 39% | Gwangju FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.27 | Draw 2.56 | Gwangju FC 5.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 44% | Draw 39% | Gwangju FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.16 / Gwangju FC 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gwangju FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.185 / away 0.679 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Gwangju FC xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 28 February 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 44% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 17% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.85x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
44%
2.28
39%
2.59
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.82
0.66
Gwangju FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
5%
18.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.66 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Gwangju FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gwangju FC won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
3
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon Bluewings edge out Gwangju FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG and Gwangju FC 0.66 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gwangju FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 44% | Draw 39% | Gwangju FC 17%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.