Suwon Bluewings 3-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 36%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gangwon FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Suwon Bluewings are significantly better at Suwon World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gangwon FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suwon Bluewings register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gangwon FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 1 for Gangwon FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 56% versus Gangwon FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 64% | Gangwon FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG and Gangwon FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.882 / defence 1.436 | Gangwon FC attack 0.705 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.119. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Suwon Bluewings games / 25 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 36% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Gangwon FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Suwon Bluewings 70% | Gangwon FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 36% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.16 / Gangwon FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.882 / def 1.436 | Gangwon FC attack 0.705 / def 1.339 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Gangwon FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 06:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings 3 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 36% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 0W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 1W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.88) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.50
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.29
1.13
Gangwon FC xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.13 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 7D 11L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.12 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 0.83 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
5
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suwon Bluewings at 75%, Gangwon FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Suwon Bluewings) and 42% (Gangwon FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 67% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Suwon Bluewings's matches and 42% of Gangwon FC's.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon Bluewings edge out Gangwon FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gangwon FC 3-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG and Gangwon FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.88 / defence 1.44 against Gangwon FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.34, drawn from 29/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 36% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 35%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 64%, Gangwon FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.12 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.